State: Cost talk chips at class size support

As political strategies go, the campaign against the popular class size amendment is simple: Tell voters over and over how expensive it will be, and watch support shrink.

That "sticker shock" approach already is showing signs of effectiveness. But it has a long way to go.

Polls show that the Nov. 5 ballot initiative to reduce class size remains popular among likely voters, but slips when they are told about the multibillion-dollar price tag.

"That's billion with a B, right?" said Susan Ruffing, 46, of Flagler Beach, who took part in the poll. "I would support the amendment, but I guess I would want to know more about how we're going to pay for it. That seems like a lot of money to me."

A recent St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald poll of likely Democratic voters, the most ardent supporters of the initiative, found that 84 percent would vote for it. But when told it might cost as much as $27.5-billion over eight years and might require tax increases or budget cuts, support slipped to 68 percent.

That's sizable support that would please any candidate. But a 16 percent drop is a cause for concern for amendment supporters.

"If you can scrape 16 points off the Democrats that easily, imagine what you could do with Republicans and Independents," said pollster Rob Schroth, who conducted the poll for the Times and Herald in late August. State Sen. Kendrick Meek, D-Miami, the main force behind the initiative, said he thinks voters will see through the antiamendment campaign.

"The public is smart enough to see through it when they hear that the sky is going to fall if we reduce class size in our schools," Meek said.

"They can wage a big-money campaign against us," he said. "We'll invite parents to visit classrooms to see for themselves. They know there is a need."

Meek is pleased with recent polls. Besides the Times/Herald poll, he pointed to this week's release of a Mason-Dixon poll of registered voters -- Democrats and Republicans -- that showed 64 percent support.

The plan would be phased in over eight years. By 2010, class sizes would be capped at 18 students from prekindergarten through third grade, 22 for fourth through eighth grade, and 25 for high school.

Since voters seem to instinctively embrace the proposal, it will take a well-financed and well-organized campaign to defeat it.

That's precisely what opponents have in mind.

"You're going to see a serious campaign," said former House Speaker John Thrasher, an influential lobbyist who will be involved in the campaign against Amendment 9. "Do we have the money in the bank right now? No. But we will. In the next week or so you'll see the campaign taking shape."

The group is forming a political action committee, the Coalition to Protect Florida, Thrasher said. It will involve high-profile critics of the amendment.

The campaign won't start until after Tuesday's primary. But in the coming weeks, voters can expect to see community figures speaking out against the amendment. They will say it will take money that would have gone to improving teacher salaries, and that it will force Florida to put less-qualified teachers in classrooms.

Meek takes issue with the ominous warnings of budget cuts and raised taxes. He says the state has the money, but that lawmakers would have to reorder priorities, such as giving away less money in tax breaks to corporations. The cost of the amendment is a matter of debate. The state's official estimate is $27.5-billion. But respected economists estimate that the cost is half that.

Meek thinks the state's official price tag is a cynical attempt to scare voters. And since state economists agreed on the $27.5-billion figure, others opposed to the amendment have come up with even higher numbers. Some political observers say the specific price tag is of little concern, because everyone agrees it's in the billions.

John Sowinski, an Orlando public relations consultant who has worked for and against several citizen initiatives, said Thrasher's strategy was sound.

"Voters aren't dumb. They intuitively understand it will cost something," said Sowinski, who is not involved in the class size campaign. "But the price tag argument only gets you part of the way there. "

Sowinski said the opposition would have to devise a smart, well-funded campaign to kill Amendment 9.

The class size debate is sure to affect the governor's race as soon as the Democratic primary is over. The three Democrats support the amendment. Gov. Bush has spoken out against it. "I'm convinced the supporters see this as a potent weapon," Sowinski said. "They'll be trying to get the governor on the wrong side of an 80-20 issue."

Back to State news

Contact the Times | Privacy Policy
Standard of Accuracy | Terms, Conditions & Copyright

Special Links

Lucy Morgan

From the Times state desk