Jack Belich is Assistant to the President at the St. Petersburg Times. He shares his analysis and observations on Hurricane Charley in this online journal.
By JACK BELICH
Published August 13, 2004
Friday, 7:27 p.m.: Hurricane Charley is weakening as he moves rapidly over the Florida
Peninsula. At 7 p.m., the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami
reports
sustained winds are down to 115 mph and further weakening is forecast
during the next 24 hours.
The storm is reported to be just south of Fort Meade or about 65 miles
south-southwest of Orlando. Charley is moving toward the
north-northeast
at 25 mph and a gradual increase in forward speed is expected tonight
and
Saturday. The center of Charley is projected to pass near Winter Haven
and
Orlando during the next few hours and then across the northeastern
portion
of the peninsula into the Atlantic Ocean between Daytona Beach and Cape
Canaveral.
Extremely heavy rainfall will total as much as 8 inches in some areas
and
the storm surge flooding of 10 to 15 feet is occurring near and south
of
where the hurricane eye moved inland. Damage will likely be heavy.
Friday, 5:16 p.m.: Hurricane Charley has made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane near
Charlotte Harbor, Florida and is heading for Florida's East Coast where
it
is expected to enter the Atlantic Ocean. Hurricane Warnings remain in
place along the Florida West Coast from Cape Sable northward to the
Suwannee River.
Highest winds are now near 140 mph with a few higher gusts. Punta
Gorda
has reported sustained winds of 87 mph with a gust to 127 mph.
Hurricane
force winds are expected to spread across Florida near the path of the
center of the hurricane this evening and early Saturday morning.
Forecasters expect that Charley's winds will weaken rather quickly over
land.
Charley is moving toward the north-northeast near 22 mph and an
increase in
the forward speed is expected.
Friday, 2:50 p.m.: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami has revised the projected
track of Hurricane Charley -- and they are now predicting landfall later
this
afternoon near the Charlotte Harbor and Fort Myers area. That means,
Pinellas County will be spared the threat of severe storm surge
problems.
The highest sustained winds are now 145 mph and moves Charley up to a
Category 4 hurricane.
While spared the brunt of the storm surge problems, West Central
Florida
from Manatee County north, should expect heavy thunderstorms, flooding
and
high wind damage.
Hurricane Charley is presently moving to the north-northeast at 20 mph.
On
this track, the center of Charley should make landfall in the Charlotte
Harbor area later this afternoon. Storm surge flooding of 10 to 15
feet is
expected near and south of the area where the center crosses the
Florida
west coast.
Friday, 1:20 p.m.: At 1:15 pm this Thursday afternoon, a U.S. Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance
aircraft reported that Hurricane Charley has become a Category 4 storm
with
maximum sustained winds of 145 mph.
Friday, 1:17 p.m.: Hurricane Charley has moved more to the east and the projected point
of
landfall is now south of Tampa Bay, near Charlotte Harbor-Fort Myers,
later this afternoon. Counties north and east of the point of
landfall
will still be affected by extremely high winds and thunderstorm
activity.
Counties near Charlotte Harbor will be adversely affected by the
projected
storm surge. The storm surge threat to Tampa Bay has been considerably
lessened.
Charley is now a Category 3 hurricane -- maximum sustained winds are now
near 125 mph with higher gusts. Charley is an extremely dangerous
hurricane !
The forward motion of Charley has picked up considerably and is now
towards
the north-northeast at 20 (twenty) mph. On this track, Charley is
projected to make landfall in the Charlotte Harbor area. The eye wall
is
well defined and shows signs of continuing to strengthen.
The leading edge of Charley contains heavy thunderstorm activity and
has
already produced several reports of tornados in Hardee, Highlands, and
Polk
Counties. The National Weather Service in Ruskin has issued several
River
Flood Warnings for area rivers.
Friday, 11:58 a.m.: The leading edge of Hurricane Charley is likely to produce tornados--andthe National Weather Service at Ruskin has issued a Tornado Warning forHardee and Highlands Counties.
In addition, the NWS at Ruskin has issued a River Flood Warning for theHillsborough River at Hillsborough State Park at the Morris Bridge, theAlafia River at Lithia, the Littrle Manatee River at Wimauma, the ManateeRiver at Myakka Head and Rye Bridge, the Peace River at Bartow and Arcadia,Horse Creek near Arcadia, and the Anclote River near Elfers. These RiverFlood Warnings will be in effect until Saturday morning at 4 a.m.
Friday, 11:50 a.m.
Hurricane Charley continues to head for the Florida West Coast butforecasters at the National Hurricane Center have made a slight adjustmentto the east of the previous storm track.
That bodes well for Pinellas County but is bad news for the folks downsouth in Manatee and Sarasota Counties. At 11 am, Charley was locatedabout 145 mph or 154 miles south of St. Petersburg.
In addition, the projected time frames have now slipped. First effect ofHurricane Charley will be at 2 pm; the eye is projected to be over TampaBay at 8 pm; and the trailing edge will clear Tampa Bay by 1 am Saturdaymorning.
Highest sustained winds remain at 110 mph and strengthening is forecastprior to landfall. The storm is now moving to the north at 18 mph and aturn towards the north-northeast , with an increase in forward speed isexpected. Forecasts predict Charley will be a Category 3 storm when hemakes landfall. It should be noted that the pressure has dropped 5 MB to965 MB during the past two hours--this suggests that there will be someadditional strengthening over the next several hours.
Pinellas County authorities have closed all bridges heading west onto thebarrier islands as of 11 am. Bay News 9 is reporting that electricalservice to the barrier islands will be turned off by Progress Energy at 12Noon.
