After Arafat, a power vacuum

Potential successors as Palestinian president are largely seen as not tough enough or corrupt, or both.

	[Times photo: John Pendygraft]
	A Palestinian man tends to his sheep in a vacant lot in Ramallah, the city where Yasser Arafat is likely to be buried upon his death.

RAMALLAH, West Bank - Soon after he became Palestinian prime minister in 2003, Mahmoud Abbas ordered workers to tear down all "martyr posters" honoring suicide bombers and Palestinians killed by Israelis.

Abbas, a negotiator of the 1993 Oslo peace accords, thought the posters glorified death and were too provocative. His order pleased Israel and the United States, which saw it as evidence that Abbas was a "friend" they could work with.

That's exactly why some Palestinians feel Abbas is too weak to be their leader.

"I'm convinced he thinks Israel and the U.S. hold all the cards and that the Palestinians must work within this framework," says Dr. Saleh Abd Al-Jawad, a political science professor at Bir Zeit University.

With Yasser Arafat, 75, thought to be near death, Abbas, a founder of the Palestinian Liberation Organization, is a leading contender to become president of the 3.6-million Palestinians.

But the doubts Palestinians have about Abbas illustrate the great dilemma of the post-Arafat era: finding a leader flexible enough to be accepted by Israel and the United States, yet strong enough to convince Palestinians that he is not selling them down the river.

The challenge is all the harder because there is such a shallow pool of candidates. Although elected president in a free and fair vote in 1996, Arafat remained a dictator at heart, reluctant to give up one iota of power. As a result no other Palestinian approaches his legendary status, charisma and authority.

"He was such a big symbol for us, he was like our father," says Fatima Shoman, 22, a geography major at Bir Zeit. "Nobody can equal Arafat; nobody has the same experience."

Since Arafat was flown to Paris for treatment Oct. 29, responsibility for day-to-day Palestinian affairs has rested with a committee that includes Abbas, who is in his late 60s, and Ahmed Qureia, the current prime minister. Things have run smoothly so far, and most observers think they will continue that way for some time after Arafat dies.

"There will, of course, be sincere outpourings of grief among Palestinians when their chairman eventually departs from this world," David Kimche, a former Israeli government official, wrote in the Jerusalem Post. "But there will not be chaos or anarchy. There will not be an open battle to inherit the mantle ... not immediately."

One reason, Kimche says, is that Palestinian officials have agreed among themselves that there should be "an interregnum lasting at least several months before any dramatic change could occur." At the helm are Abbas and Qureia, whose main task is to maintain stability and keep the Palestinian Authority from disintegrating.

Their high-profile status would give both men a leg up with voters if Palestinians hold long-awaited elections next year. But an expert at Bir Zeit - once called the "Berkeley of the West Bank" because of its political activism - has misgivings about a speedy election.

On the plus side, the first democratic contest in almost a decade might produce a fresh field of candidates, says Dr. Mohsin Yusef, a Princeton-educated history professor.

"But if we hold elections very quickly and before the younger generation can prepare themselves, maybe we'd be stuck with one of these guys who are weak and corrupt."

In the eyes of Yusef and many other Palestinians, Abbas was a poor prime minister because he seemed too willing to compromise over the issue of land.

"He is a weak person," Yusef says. "Maybe under the pressure of Israel, Europe and America he will agree to less of the West Bank, and this will prevent many Palestinians from voting for him."

Qureia, who succeeded Abbas as prime minister, has been tainted by revelations that a family-owned company provided concrete for the Israeli security fence so despised by Palestinians.

"Abbas is weak and Qureia is corrupt, so what kind of choice is that for voters?" Yusef asks.

Another oft-mentioned candidate to succeed Arafat is Mohammed Dahlan, former head of security in the Gaza Strip. He enjoys good relations with Israel and the United States, which immediately makes him suspect in the eyes of many Palestinians. Known for his luxurious lifestyle, Dahlan is also considered corrupt.

One man highly admired by Palestinians - and even some Israelis - is Marwan Barghouti. Unlike members of Hamas and other radical groups, he opposed attacks against Israeli civilians inside Israel, and advocates a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Charismatic and relatively young (born in 1958), Barghouti speaks fluent Hebrew and English, and has a master's degree from Bir Zeit. But, given that he is serving five life terms for involvement in deadly shootings against Israelis, he is a long shot to succeed Arafat.

Would Israel ever release him, as the British did with terrorists in Northern Ireland as part of the peace process there?

"In politics anything is possible," says Yusef, who had Barghouti as a student. "He is strong and yet at the same time he does not claim all of Israel - just the occupied territories."

A huge question mark is the role of Hamas. Although considered a terrorist organization by Israel and the United States, it has wide support in the Gaza Strip, where it provides food, clothing and other humanitarian aid to thousands of Palestinian refugees.

Hamas has indicated it would like to be more involved in the political process, including running its members for office. One reason Arafat resisted new elections is that he was afraid Hamas would win.

But many Palestinians, especially those in the West Bank, are secular. They are unlikely to favor the kind of highly conservative Islamic state that Hamas advocates.

"When I speak to people, they support Hamas and Islamic Jihad because they are unhappy with the Palestinian Authority," Yusef says. "But when they go to elections, we may see deeper thinking and some of them may change their minds."

Al-Jawad, the political science professor, says it would be unwise to discount the role Israel could play in choosing the next Palestinian president. It already has assassinated the top two Hamas leaders - Abdel Aziz Rantisi and Sheik Yassin - and could eliminate anyone else it deemed unacceptable.

"Israel can determine who is still alive, so Israel is an integral part of the selection process," Al-Jawad says. "If we leave the Palestinians alone, there is the possibly of overcoming Arafat's death and absence, and maybe democratization and reform will be easier. But if Israel uses their collaborators and their networks to intervene behind the scenes, there will be problems."

Al-Jawad and others are skeptical that elections could be held anyway, given the difficulties Palestinians have getting around because of Israeli checkpoints, road closures and other impediments. But Hamza Dalia, a 22-year-old junior, is certain of one thing: Palestinians will continue to take a great interest in political affairs.

"Palestinians always talk about politics because this is our life," he says. "We are living the problem so we have to talk about it."

Susan Taylor Martin can be contacted at susan@sptimes.com

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