State: Davis decides at last to try to stay put

TAMPA -- After months of indecision, U.S. Rep. Jim Davis has backed out of the already crowded Democratic field for Florida governor, saying the time was not right.

"There was no single factor," Davis said Friday. "There were personal considerations and other obligations. Yesterday, late after dinner, it just finally hit me that it didn't work.

"I still have the wonderful opportunity to serve the community and the state in the U.S. Congress," he said.

Davis was back in Washington, D.C., on Friday to focus on the federal budget and, soon, his re-election campaign. Although he is widely viewed as a shoo-in to win a fourth term next year, some political observers now question whether that is certain.

With reapportionment looming at the hands of a Republican-controlled state Legislature, no bets are sure, they say.

"There has been some speculation that Republicans would alter that district to shore up districts across the bay," said Susan MacManus, a political analyst and professor at the University of South Florida. "There's no guarantee that his district will look the same."

Wayne Garcia, a Tampa political consultant with Repper, Garcia & Associates, which works with both parties, said Davis' taking seven months to decide whether to run for governor could hurt him. Some Republicans may see his exit on the heels of Janet Reno's entrance into the race as a sign of weakness, he said.

If Reno wins the Democratic nomination for governor, she could scare moderate voters away from Democrats across the board in other races. And if Davis' district is shifted, say, east into Brandon, or south into Sun City Center, both Republican strongholds, he could find himself vulnerable, Garcia said.

"It wouldn't take a very large swing for this district to be much more competitive for Republicans," he said. "I don't think by any means that he is bulletproof."

Republicans are clearly eyeing the district. State Rep. Tom Lee, R-Brandon, at one time considered to have an interest in Davis' congressional seat, acknowledged that population changes will require some redrawing.

Lee, who sits on a reapportionment committee for the state House, said that Davis' district has not kept pace with surrounding population growth. Pinellas County didn't either. So some reshuffling may be needed for the entire region. One logical way to equalize district populations in Hillsborough is to push the 11th District east.

"It's going to put some pressure in those districts within the urban core to change dramatically," Lee said.

But Mike Scionti, chairman of the Hillsborough Democratic Executive Committee, called predictions of a Republican assault on Davis' district unfounded. Scionti had thrown his support to Tampa lawyer Bill McBride in the governor's race, largely out of fear that Davis' departure from Congress would set off an expensive scramble for his seat by Democrats.

Scionti said changing the 11th District boundaries to include more Republicans would only harm surrounding Republican-controlled districts, making them vulnerable to Democrats.

"You think they're going to reshape those districts?" Scionti said. "It would be insane."

Davis said he is equally skeptical that Republicans would risk tipping the balance in the districts that surround his. He acknowledged that among the considerations about his gubernatorial bid were the many phone calls to his office from Democrats urging him to stay put.

"One of the challenges I faced was convincing people at home to take a risk that I was willing to take," he said.

Still, he said, he will take nothing for granted.

Davis made his announced exit just two days after Reno declared her entry into the gubernatorial campaign. He said her decision was only one of many factors.

"I think he's been a splendid congressman and made tremendous contributions to the state of Florida," Reno said Friday. "I look forward to his continued service in Congress in the future." His exit leaves five prominent Democrats to challenge Gov. Jeb Bush, who is not expected to face opposition in the Republican primary. The other candidates are Reno; McBride; former U.S. Rep. and Ambassador to Vietnam Douglas "Pete" Peterson of Tallahassee; state Sen. Daryl Jones of Miami; and state Rep. Lois Frank of West Palm Beach.

- Bill Varian can be reached at (813) 226-3387 or at varian@sptimes.com.

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